How economies change direction

1Research

My research asks how the direction of technological change is set and contested: by governments that design missions, by rivalry between states, by the finance that commits resources to one path over another, and by social pressure and public attention.² It runs along four lines.

1.1Mission-oriented innovation policy

What missions are, how they differ from earlier technology programmes, and which capacities governments need to design, run and evaluate them.

1. Penna, C.C.R., Mazzucato, M. and Santos, G.O. (2026). Systemic Capacities and Capabilities for Mission-Oriented Innovation Policies: The Case of Brazil's Inova Programme. Policy Design and Practice.
2. Coenen, T.B.J., Wiarda, M., Wanzenböck, I., Janssen, M. and Penna, C.C.R. (2026). What Are Transformative Missions, Really? Three Dimensions for One Shared Understanding. Science and Public Policy, scag002.
3. Janssen, M.J., Wesseling, J.H., Klerkx, L., Weber, M., Torrens, J. and Penna, C.C.R. (2023). Missions as Boundary Objects for Transformative Change. Science and Public Policy, scac080.

1.2State, industrial policy and geopolitics

Why industrial policy has returned, how states build the capacity to steer technology, and how middle powers such as Brazil position themselves while the great powers compete over technology and trade.

1. Penna, C.C.R. (2026). Crustacean Nations: The Geopolitics of Survival under the Donroe Doctrine. CEBRI-Revista. Also in Portuguese.
2. Penna, C.C.R. (2021). Technological Revolutions and the Role of the State in the Governance of Digital Technologies. Global Cooperation on Digital Governance and the Geoeconomics of New Technologies in a Multi-polar World Essay Series. Project for Peaceful Competition.
3. Labrunie, M.L., Penna, C.C.R. and Kupfer, D. (2020). The Resurgence of Industrial Policies in the Age of Advanced Manufacturing. Revista Brasileira de Inovação, 19: 1–39.

1.3Innovation and transition finance

State investment banks, patient capital, and the rules and instruments that direct investment towards transformative change.

1. Penna, C.C.R., Schot, J. and Steinmueller, W.E. (2023). Transformative Investment: New Rules for Investing in Sustainability Transitions. Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, 49, 100782.
2. Mazzucato, M. and Penna, C.C.R. (2016). Beyond Market Failures: The Market Creating and Shaping Roles of State Investment Banks. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 19(4): 305–326.
3. Mazzucato, M. and Penna, C.C.R. (eds.) (2015). Mission-Oriented Finance for Innovation: New Ideas for Investment-Led Growth. London: Policy Network / Rowman & Littlefield.

1.4Sustainability transitions

How incumbent industries reorient under social and political pressure, and how transitions can be monitored while they unfold.

1. Penna, C.C.R. and Geels, F.W. (2015). Climate Change and the Slow Reorientation of the American Car Industry (1979–2012): An Application and Extension of the Dialectic Issue LifeCycle (DILC) Model. Research Policy, 44(5): 1029–1048.
2. Geels, F.W. and Penna, C.C.R. (2015). Societal Problems and Industry Reorientation: Elaborating the Dialectic Issue LifeCycle (DILC) Model and a Case Study of Car Safety in the USA (1900–1995). Research Policy, 44(1): 67–82.
3. Penna, C.C.R., Romero Goyeneche, O.R. and Matti, C. (2023). Exploring Indicators for Monitoring Sociotechnical System Transitions through Portfolio Networks. Science and Public Policy, scad015.

2Advisory

I advise governments and multilateral organisations on the design, financing and evaluation of innovation policy. Table 1 lists selected engagements.

3Teaching

I have taught graduate courses at TU Delft and UFRJ, and designed training programmes for public officials at ENAP, FINEP and the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.

Economics of Innovation and Technological Change

From Schumpeterian foundations through sectoral innovation systems to Industry 4.0 and the dynamics of disruptive technologies — taught to MSc students, economics undergraduates, energy regulators, and federal civil servants. TU Delft · UFRJ · ENAP · ANEEL.

Innovation Policy, Missions, and the Role of the State

Design, implementation, and evaluation of mission-oriented innovation policies. Intensive workshops for FINEP analysts, capacity-building for MCTI officials, and graduate seminars on public policy management and state capacities. FINEP · ENAP · UFRJ.

Political Economy, Sustainability, and Transitions

How political, economic, and institutional forces shape large-scale technological and societal transitions — from the Multi-Level Perspective and deep transitions theory to international climate negotiations and the geopolitics of the energy transition. TU Delft · Utrecht · Sussex.

4Writing and talks

4.1Notes on talks

1. Penna, C.C.R. (2026). Latin American industrial policy survives in disguise. Babbage Forum 2026, University of Cambridge; keynote.
2. Penna, C.C.R. (2025). Technological sovereignty alone will give AI a gilded age. International Symposium "Foresight in a Rapidly Changing World"; speaker.

4.2Essays

1. Penna, C.C.R. (2025). Além do padrão: reflexões sobre IA e inteligência humana. Essay.

4.3Recent talks

5Correspondence

Correspondence to caetano.penna@gmail.com for advisory assignments, executive education, research collaboration and speaking. I work in English, Spanish and Portuguese.

Google Scholar · ORCID · LinkedIn

For the press. Interviews and coverage · Press kit (short bios in English, Portuguese and Spanish, with high-resolution photographs).